There are only two circumstances in which private space companies extend the boundaries of human spaceflight. One: a government pays them to do it. Two, something of worth is discovered outside near earth orbit which it is technologically and financially feasible to bring back and sell. (And that will probably not include “asteroid mining.”) That, it seems to me right now, is it. And the latter requires that the resource is outside the capability of robots to obtain. Private space companies are businesses. NASA doesn’t have the funding. ESA and everyone else is missing the boosters and the tin. Except China, but even they can’t leave cislunar space until 2040. We’re not going anywhere for a while. If you want a fictional model for the near future of crewed spaceflight, it is, I’m afraid, SALVAGE 1.

This space is available for rent. I am taking Sunday off.